BELOW: Robert Baer speaks with an Iranian cleric in a
scene from his BBC documentary about suicide bombers



THE DEVIL YOU KNOW

His book See No Evil provided a frank and scathing look at the CIA’s flawed approach to the war on terrorism, and inspired the movie, Syriana. Now, former CIA Middle East specialist, Robert Baer, turns his focus to Iraq, and Iran’s new claim to power

Interview: Suzan Ryan

You have said that Iraq, as we know it as a country, is gone. What do you foresee happening: more annexing by Iran of major economic cities such as Basra?

"More annexing, and I think we’re gonna see a relationship like what the United States has with Canada, where Canada really can’t afford to challenge us on national security issues. Our security is intimately attached, and I think we’re gonna find that with Iraq and Iran."

You say Iraq’s factions were held together as a nation by sheer force via the Iraqi Army, which makes our ‘fight-depose-liberate’ strategy seem short-sighted and ultimately damaging...

"Absolutely. It comes down to Iraq being an artificial country. Afghanistan and Pakistan are also artificial countries. We should have seen, especially since we imposed [free] elections in Iraq in 2005, that Iraq would have a Shia majority—and it did, a sectarian group—and the most organised [of these] were the guys who’ve been in Iran all these years. It was nuts. [The Iranian Shia] were just better organised."

Considering the west’s experience with guerrilla tactics—the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, the Vietcong in Vietnam—our failure to understand this type of warfare is frighteningly ignorant.

"Yes, because foreign policy isn’t taken seriously here. If we avoid a war with Iran, then someone else is gonna have to do it. For me, this book was so obvious. I’ve followed Iran for 30 years, and based on intelligence we shared—also with Australia—I came to the clear conclusion that people are hard-wired for dishonesty and deception, and that this will all come to a crushing end."

“The Americans have taught the Iraqis more about corruption than
they thought they could ever learn”

Is America’s relative youth and naïveté as a nation partly to blame?

"It’s ideological, that’s the problem: that there is such a thing as ‘American exceptionalism’; that we can improve the world, we can perfect it, we can impose the American way of life. It’s an arrogance [and] truly a religious type of belief that as the world—as history—progresses, that “God is on our side”. It’s a Jacobin/Christian view that man is perfectible; that we’re obligated to do it; and that we are right."

We did the same thing with Russia. As the country lurched towards dissolution, we overestimated its army, its nukes, its space program—and they couldn’t even feed their own people.

"Yeah, and we had all their rocket plans from the 60s, and their designs were all flawed, but no-one wanted to believe the CIA. With Iran, we’re saying, 'Look at the price of oil, that’s gonna take the wind out of their empire.' Well, it didn’t, not even in 2000 when oil was US$10 a barrel. The US$200 million Iran is putting into Lebanon [to fund Hezbollah], that money is not disappearing into pockets; it goes a long way, and it’s gonna go a long way in Iraq.

"Americans have taught the Iraqis more about corruption than they thought they could ever learn. The Iraqis I talked to are stunned with the corruption in the American occupation."

Instead of backing Saudi Arabia and Israel as the region’s powers, should we instead be supporting Iran?

"Absolutely. Iran can’t believe how foolish we are in supporting such shaky economies, and to continually show such short-sightedness in policy. They believe that theirs is the only nation with the power, outlook and natural resources to be playing in the big game.

"We did them a favour in removing Saddam, now the millions of exiled Shia are returning to Iraq and establishing themselves. In fact, in some Iraqi cites, such as Basra, the Iranian Rial has taken over as the accepted currency."

But isn’t Basra a mere chess piece for Iran, a step forward on the march?

"It’s a step on the march, but what they’re gonna do is put [the annexed regions of] Iraq forward as a beacon to the Arab Shia, as in, 'Look, these guys have their own country, and it’s thanks to us.' And Lebanon, if the demographics continue, is gonna become a Shia country backed by Iran, with an important Christian alliance.

"The Iranians are saying, 'Who is protecting the Christians in the world? It’s us. Who is killing them? American allies—the Wahhabi [Saudis]'. The Iranians don’t care; they let Christian churches [operate] in Tehran, they are completely ecumenical when it comes to that.

"Iran has a huge Jewish community which they protect, and it’s so weird because in Saudi Arabia you can’t even put out a Christmas tree without being picked up by the religious police, yet in Iran you can dress as Santa Claus and drive around Tehran for all they care.

"The Iranians have a pseudo democracy, and yes there is a huge problem with unemployment and inflation, and yes the mullahs could be edged out, but you’re gonna find the liberals, the younger students, are gonna share the same feelings about the Shia in Iraq. They’re not gonna pull out; it’s not gonna happen."

“People are so fed up with Washington and Wall Street; they’re
disgusted with foreign policy”

Fear of a global Islamic fundamentalist takeover seems trite when we consider that Christians have been doing the same thing for centuries—converting ‘the unwashed masses’ by force or by choice...

"There are plenty of religious representatives in Iraq trying to convert the country—and they’re not Muslim, they’re Christian. The sooner that Christian-based policy leaves American politics, the better. When [religion] becomes the basis of our intellectual approach to the world, you need to get away from it."

You say that one option is to withdraw from Iraq and leave Iran as the ‘occupier state’. Is that likely?

"I think we’re gonna withdraw and effectively leave the country to Iran, but I don’t think we’re ever gonna say that. Iranians understand Americans very well, and what they understand is to let America back out of Iraq.

"They’re not gonna send troops in to fill it because they’re Persians—they know they can offend the Arabs in Iraq, so they’re going out of their way not to offend the Arab Shia; they’re very careful to guard themselves against that.

"The Iranians know their limits, they’re not asking for a lot. They want to close down the MEK [People’s Mujahadeen Organization of Iran], they want Americans out by 2011—all the demands are very easy [and, in return, they say] we’re gonna protect you, we’re gonna help you take Baghdad and the other major cities and they’re gonna be Shia, and we’re gonna do this in a very reasonable, systematic way. That’s the message coming across."

So the US should quietly withdraw while the world’s eyes are on something else?

"Yeah, and then people forget it. These wars you can’t win. We’re not losing in Iraq, but you can’t win. You just claim victory and leave."

I think President Bush did that on an aircraft carrier five years ago...

"[laughs] Yeah, but what Obama doesn’t want to happen is for the Iranians to start crowing about this. If they’re smart, the Iranians will just deny they have any influence on the outcome at all and allow us the fiction."

That’s another point you detail succinctly in the book, that Iran is happy to not take credit, to keep the wires hidden.

"That’s right. They don’t want to take credit because that reveals the [rule by] proxies. But it’s strange, the [former] Iranian ambassador to Syria [Mohammad Hassan Akhtari] admitted in an interview about a year ago that Iran supported the Islamic Jihad Organisation, which is extraordinary—extraordinary that we ignored it.

"The Iranians have the capacity to really mess us up. And what’s really going to make a difference are the Israelis."

How so?

"If [Avigdor] Lieberman got his way and expelled the Arabs [The 2004 Lieberman Plan proposed a population exchange between Arabs and Jews], or if it gets to the point where people are starving on the West Bank, or Hamas takes it over, or they go into Gaza and really make a mess of it, then all bets are off.

"There’s also the price of oil. If the price of oil goes down to US$10 a barrel and there’s chaos in the Gulf—as there will be in China very soon—then I can’t tell you what’s gonna happen."

Hillary Clinton says that she will push for diplomacy in US/Iran relations because “nothing else has worked”. Does this offer hope for legitimate gains via new security for oil and gas?

"There’s hope. Iran will give it a chance, but wait and see. Look, I live in a world of patriots—ex-CIA and security people—and even they’ve had enough. They say, 'Let it [the Capitol] burn'.

"People are so fed up with Washington and Wall Street; they’re disgusted with foreign policy. No-one’s in charge of the State Department at the moment; there are so many personal power plays..."

The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower (Scribe) is available now in bookstores nationally.